Latest NGFS climate risk scenarios: Implications for financial institutions 

In November 2024, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) released the latest version (termed Phase V) of its climate risk scenarios. These introduce significant advancements that enhance financial institutions’ accuracy when undertaking climate-related financial risk assessments.

Key advancements include the incorporation of a new damage function for physical risk assessment, the integration of the latest economic and climate data, and alignment with recent policy commitments. While these advancements mark substantial progress, certain limitations persist.

Financial institutions are advised to leverage these updated scenarios to enhance climate risk modelling and risk management practices, ensuring resilience in the face of evolving climate-related challenges. This is nevertheless not a simple task. These advancements also introduce challenges, requiring financial institutions to continually refine their models to their portfolio mix and regional contexts, while addressing data limitations and system demands.

This article provides a summary of the improvements introduced by the NGFS scenarios, some of the limitations, and what they mean for financial institutions.

For more details on the NGFS scenarios, read our other article on NGFS phase V climate risk scenarios: good progress however unaddressed limitations remain.

What are the NGFS climate risk scenarios?

The NGFS is a consortium of central banks and financial supervisors dedicated to mobilizing finance towards a sustainable economy. A key initiative of the NGFS is the development of climate risk scenarios, which serve as standardised frameworks for analysing the potential economic impacts of climate change under various assumptions.

These scenarios are instrumental for climate stress testing (CST) and are widely adopted by regulators and financial institutions globally. They explore a range of plausible futures, integrating transition and physical risks with macro-financial developments.

“The NGFS Phase V scenarios represent a significant advancement in climate risk modelling, offering enhanced tools for understanding physical and transition risks. However, financial institutions must tailor these insights to their unique contexts and invest in adapting and enhancing their climate risk models to improve the accuracy of loss estimation and pricing.”

Gregory Marchat, Group Head of Financial Services Advisory, Forvis Mazars UK

Advancements in Phase V of the NGFS climate risk scenarios

Phase V introduces several notable enhancements:

  • New damage function for physical risk assessment: This function incorporates various climate variables and persistence effects to capture diverse impacts on economic output. It utilizes high-resolution datasets for global applicability and includes lagged variables to account for delayed economic consequences. This enhancement offers improved accuracy and realistic dynamics in modelling physical risks.
  • Updated economic and climate data: The scenarios now reflect the most recent gross domestic product and population pathways, as well as the latest nationally determined contributions and other policy developments. This ensures that the scenarios are aligned with current global economic and policy landscapes.
  • Refined projections: Refined projections in Phase V include higher peak temperature scenarios and updated transition pathways. These updates are grounded in recent policy commitments, such as the latest country-level climate pledges as of March 2024[1], advancements in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and updated energy system transitions[2].

“In the EU, it is also important to consider the EBA’s final Guidelines on ESG risk management, published on 9 January 2025, which introduce the requirement for financial institutions to perform scenario-based analyses related to ESG factors. The EBA has also launched a public consultation on a complementary draft Guidelines on ESG scenario analysis.”

Eric Cloutier, Head of Global Financial Sector Regulatory Centre (RegCentre), Forvis Mazars UK

Our evaluation of the Phase V changes

The updates in Phase V are commendable for several reasons:

  • Enhanced physical risk modelling: The new damage function provides a more comprehensive assessment of physical risks, capturing the effects of gradual climate changes on the economy more accurately. Certain portfolios, such as commercial real estate and agriculture financing, may face larger impacts due to their higher exposure to physical risks like extreme weather events and rising temperatures. Similarly, non-financial sectors such as utilities, construction, and tourism could experience significant effects. For financial institutions, this necessitates re-evaluating sectoral financing strategies to mitigate risks and enhance portfolio resilience. This does not mean exiting more at-risk sectors, but reevaluating risk appetite, pricing, and financing structuring.
  • Improved data accuracy: Incorporating the latest economic and climate data ensures that the scenarios are reflective of current realities, enhancing their utility for forward-looking risk assessments.

Although these advancements signify considerable progress, some limitations remain:

  • Uncertainty in projections: Despite improvements, inherent uncertainties in climate projections persist, which can affect the reliability of long-term risk assessments. For example, acute risks like cyclones and long-term phenomena such as sea level rise are only partially captured, potentially underestimating total damages. Furthermore, uncertainties about the pace of renewable energy adoption or the effectiveness of carbon capture technologies can significantly influence temperature trajectories and economic impacts, leading to varying outcomes in scenario analyses.
  • Need for contextual adaptation: Scenarios may require adaptation to specific regional or institutional contexts to ensure their applicability and effectiveness. For example, in regions prone to severe flooding, banks may need to enhance physical risk modelling for at-risk sectors such as real estate and infrastructure portfolios. This includes incorporating local hazard maps and historical data to reflect localised vulnerabilities accurately. Regional climate vulnerabilities can significantly impact financial institutions’ lending and investment decisions, necessitating the integration of climate risks into banks’ frameworks to safeguard against future losses.

Implications for financial institutions

The advancements in Phase V have several implications for financial institutions:

  • Enhanced risk assessment: Financial institutions can use the updated scenarios to conduct more accurate and comprehensive climate risk assessments, aiding in identifying vulnerabilities and informing strategic decision-making. However, integrating the new damage function and regional data into existing models may pose challenges, particularly in sourcing granular data and adapting analytical frameworks. To address this, institutions should invest in advanced modelling tools and ensure teams are equipped to interpret complex climate datasets effectively.
  • Regulatory compliance: With the widespread adoption of NGFS scenarios in regulatory CSTs, aligning internal models with Phase V updates will be essential for meeting compliance and supervisory expectations. The new damage function and additional data requirements increase the complexity of implementation, necessitating updates to risk management frameworks to account for delayed economic consequences of physical risks. Institutions must also address potential operational challenges arising from these enhancements to ensure robust compliance.
  • Strategic planning: The detailed projections of economic losses associated with various climate scenarios can inform financial institutions’ strategic planning, particularly in relation to portfolio management and capital allocation. Phase V offers higher peak temperature scenarios and more granular transition pathways, allowing institutions to better model extreme climate outcomes and enhance scenario planning, especially for portfolios exposed to high-transition risks such as carbon-intensive industries.
  • Adaptation: Institutions must refine models for regional and organisational contexts. While the need for scenario adaptation is not new, Phase V introduces greater complexity with the new damage function and regional variations in datasets. This makes the adaptation process more critical than ever, especially for institutions operating in diverse geographies with varying climate vulnerabilities.
  • Ongoing refinement: Addressing remaining scenario gaps will require collaboration with policymakers and climate risk model developers. Despite significant improvements, Phase V still contains gaps, such as uncertainties around technological breakthroughs like carbon capture and the interaction between physical and transition risks in certain regions. Institutions should collaborate closely with stakeholders to refine scenarios further, ensuring they are tailored to evolving risks and specific portfolio exposures.

In conclusion, while Phase V of the NGFS climate risk scenarios represent significant progress in climate risk modelling, financial institutions must remain mindful of the existing limitations. They need to refine their approaches to address operational, strategic, and regulatory challenges, ensuring their models are robust, adaptable, and reflective of emerging risks. By leveraging these advancements effectively, institutions can enhance their resilience and contribute to a more sustainable financial system.

To mitigate potential blind spots, financial institutions should engage in developing alternative scenarios or complementary frameworks alongside the NGFS ones, conduct independent validations, expand scenarios, and ensure regulatory oversight to monitor systematic risks from herd behaviour or overreliance on shared models.”

Pierre-Alexandre Germont, Director – Global Climate Risk Lead – Forvis Mazars UK

[1] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/climate-pledges-explor

[2] https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/the-climate-action-monitor-2024_787786f6-en.html